More than 35,000 residential units are approved, envisioned in long-range plans or moving through government review across Sarasota County and the city of Sarasota, according to a Longboat Key News analysis. Some projects have buildout horizons stretching to 2056, while major road improvements are scheduled years into the future.

The figure comes from an analysis published Sunday, Oct. 18, by Longboat Key News, which tallied adopted master plans, rezone ordinances and site plans in public files. The largest single project is Hi Hat Ranch, east of Interstate 75 between Fruitville and Clark roads, which carries a master development order for more than 13,000 homes on nearly 10,000 acres. County commissioners approved rezoning for Village 1, allowing up to 3,000 homes, on Oct. 7.

The Longboat Key News tally includes developer Pat Neal's 3H Ranch at up to 6,576 homes and Lakewood Ranch Southeast at up to 5,000 homes. Winchester Ranch along River Road has a critical area plan envisioning about 9,000 homes over the coming decades, rather than final approval for construction of every unit. The analysis also cites roughly 1,700 downtown Sarasota units projected over the next five to six years. These figures combine projects at different stages of planning and approval.

$1.7 billion shortfall

County staff estimated a roughly $1.7 billion transportation funding shortfall at an April 22 workshop, according to Suncoast Searchlight. At an April 22 county commission workshop, staff outlined $2.3 billion in transportation infrastructure needs over 13 years against just $573 million in projected revenue.

A half-cent sales tax was among the funding options discussed at that workshop and was projected to collect $840 million over 13 years, according to Suncoast Searchlight. Commissioner Mark Smith questioned whether voters would approve it. The discussion did not constitute approval of a new tax.

"That's one of the things we maybe could have done better in the past is building the network before it was necessary," County Transportation Director Spencer Anderson told commissioners at that April 22 workshop, as reported by Suncoast Searchlight.

Traffic counts already reflect the strain. As reported in April, average daily traffic along Tamiami Trail through Osprey had risen 51% since 2021. On Fruitville Road between Tuttle Avenue and Beneva Road, counts climbed 21%, according to Florida Department of Transportation data cited by Suncoast Searchlight.

Roads lag behind rooftops

Longboat Key News reported that the Lorraine Road extension remained in design, with construction scheduled to begin in winter 2027 and finish in winter 2029. The report also said the county's comprehensive plan prohibits widening Fruitville Road east of Lorraine Road. Those dates are projected schedules, and the policy reflects the current plan rather than a permanent guarantee against future changes.

Meanwhile, requirements in the county's 2050 Plan have been trimmed or waived in recent approvals. Longboat Key News reported that 3H Ranch received reductions of the 500-foot greenbelt requirement to 50 feet on two sides and waivers on two others. At Hi Hat Village 1, county planning staff found the rezoning inconsistent with county rules because the village lacked a village center. Commissioners approved it despite that staff finding, WSLR reported.

The city of Sarasota's proposed transportation chapter would replace traditional level-of-service grades with a volume-to-capacity approach. Longboat Key News reported a proposed downtown threshold of 1.0, meaning traffic volume equal to estimated road capacity. The framework is not an established standard: FloridaCommerce declared the proposed amendment “null and void” Sept. 9, and city staff said revisions were expected at a Nov. 2 public hearing, according to the Sarasota News Leader.

Residents have noticed the pressure. A University of South Florida survey of more than 1,200 county residents, reported by WWSB, found growth and new development ranked as the county's biggest challenge. Transportation and infrastructure topped the list when residents were asked where the county should spend more.